A member of the intelligensia of Sierra Leone, Mr. Brian Conton, has asked members of the opposition Sierra Leone People’s Party ( SLPP ) to start preparing the minds of their supporters for the inevitable.. Making an informed and intelligent contribution at the Sierra Leone Policy Watch forum on Facebook, Mr. Conton told SLPP members : ”Those on this forum that are delaying the inevitable in the face of the obvious are playing a dangerous game. For the sake of peace and stability they need to make it known that at this point an SLPP victory is impossible and start ratcheting down expectations. Mr. Conton goes on to elucidate the reasons the SLPP must accept they have lost this election.
What Mr. Conton probably does not know is that the SLPP is aware that they have lost the elections. From Day One, they knew that Maada Bio will not defeat President Ernest Koroma in any contest. They are creating all these false expectations because they want to spark chaos in Sierra Leone. The gullible and unlearned supporters among them continue to believe them that they can still nick it though it is easier for a camel to pass through the eyes of a needle than for the SLPP to win this 2012 election. It is all part of a master game plan that will see them at the International Criminal Court ( ICC).
READ MR. CONTON’S EDUCATIVE PIECE :
Brian Conton Jesmed, thanks. The truth of the matter is that the maths is neither red nor green. It is straightforward. The SLPP was never dealt an easy hand in this election. If you look at the populations of the different provinces and their respective registered voters, in order for SLPP to win a simple majority the following has to happen. Let us first of all assume the North will be 100% APC for simplicity sake. Bio would have to first mobilize 100% of the electorate to ensure that there are no voided ballots and have the 100% of the South and East vote green. Then he has to ensure that over 60% of the west votes SLPP as well.
Under any condition. without significant participation of Port Loko, Bombali and/or Kambia it is difficult for the SLPP to win.As soon as APC started getting 4-5 polling centers inside of Bo, the most densely populated area of the South, with 40-50% that meant that 100% was not possible in the south. In addition in Kono which is the second most densly populated region in the east APC in the first few announcements was scoring 50-60% of the vote. For every 3% lost in the South or East you have to make up 2% beyond the 60% in the West. With those figures the SLPP had to win 100% of the West to gain back what it was losing in the South and East Not only this was not happening in most of the results the APC was winning 66% of the West vote.
If you knew the math and understood the dynamics it was obvious in the first ten minutes of results announcement that an SLPP win was impossible. The numbers just were not there.55% in the first round is very difficult. The West actually only determines a victory with a simple majority. This is because the expansion of APC votes in the West is finite. The 55% pathway tipping point is the East and additionally the President was gaining significantly in the South. The APC just had to run up some numbers in big population centers. As long as it can keep 15% in the South and 20% in the East it will get the 55% (right now it seems to be doing better than this).
However none of the party stalwarts can see past their blinkers. In keeping hope alive in their supporters, they are making the outcome more difficult to accept. Ultimately the electorate does not accept defeat when it hears it from the NEC. It has to hear it from its own gurus. Those on this forum that are delaying the inevitable in the face of the obvious are playing a dangerous game. For the sake of peace and stability they need to make it known that at this point an SLPP victory is impossible and start ratcheting down expectations. This is the responsibility of leadership especially when your community has paid for you to darken the doors of an institution of higher learning. Your intellectual horsepower is supposed to enable you to overcome partisan blindness. Your country needs you now.
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