Niger Coup: The Tinubu Conundrum.
By Mohamed Deen
As Nigeria’s president Bola Ahmed Tinubu contemplate sending Nigerian troops to Niger, following the overthrow of President Mohamed Bazoum, he faces a very difficult conundrum. The Niger coup occurred just a few weeks after President Tinubu retired over 100 senior officers of the Nigerian Army, Navy and Airforce. The list of retired officers comprises Major Generals, Brigadiers General and some Colonels, but most interestingly all Service Chiefs were also retired.
The retirement of the top echelon of the Nigerian Army, coupled with the fact that Niger is a neighbouring country, has created a difficult puzzle for President Tinubu. He is the current Chairman of ECOWAS, and any inaction on his part could be interpreted as passive acquiescence, and it could arguably send the wrong message to the Nigerian Army. It is worth pointing out the fact that there have been calls for the army to takeover the reins of power following the disputed 2023 presidential election in which Bola Tinubu was declared the winner. The result of the election is still being challenged in court, thereby making the Tinubu administration vulnerable to a military coup.
In the event of President Tinubu sending in the troops, which appears increasingly likely, he faces complex logistical issues, and the risk of unintended consequences. Niger is a larger country than Nigeria, with a long and porous border linking the country to several states in northern Nigeria. The states of Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Jigawa and Yobe all share border with Niger, and it is a known fact that Boko Haram fighters operate on both sides of the border. There are reports that Boko Haram is largely constituted of fighters from both Nigeria and Niger.
The Nigerien Army has engaged Boko Haram on several occasions in Niger and inflicted casualties on the group. Therefore, an invasion of Niger run the risk of strengthening Boko Haram, as sections of the Nigerien Army could wage a long and bloody guerilla war alongside Boko Haram. It is not surprising that the Senators from northern Nigeria are reportedly against any invasion of Niger, especially the Senators representing the northern Nigerian states that share border with Niger.
The forceful removal of the regime of General Abdourahamane Tchiani (Niger’s military head of state), could prove to be a hollow victory with Nigeria facing the consequences for years to come. In conclusion, it appears President Tinubu faces a difficult conundrum and he must carefully consider his options, and not adopt a knee-jerk approach.
