Now that next year’s election date has been set and campaigns will soon start, if any of you – politicians – wish to exploit this election as an ethnic or regional census to exhibit which tribe is the majority and which is the most populated, posterity will catch up with you.
Before you start preaching tribalism or regionalism, think about the brutal mass slaughter genocide against the Tuttis by the Hutus majority government in Rwanda in 1994. In 100 days, an estimated 1,950,000 Rwandans were killed during that unrest which displaced more than 1,500,000 Rwandans who became refugees in other parts of the world.
Consider the 2007/08 post-election violence in Kenya between the Kikuyu ethnic group and the Luos combined with the Kalenjins tribes before sending hate messages. Around 1,500,000 Kenyans were slain, with another 600,000 forced to flee their homes.
Also, remember the more than 10,800 people who were killed in South Sudan’s civil conflict between President Salva Kiir and his former Deputy, Riek Machar, which devolved into a genocide between the Kiir Nuer clan and the Machar Dinka people. If you still believe that separating us along tribal and regional lines will help you win next year’s election, you have to think again.
Keep it in mind! As President Barack Obama famously stated, a politics focused solely on ethnicity and tribe is doomed to rip society apart. It’s a blunder, – imaginative blunder… He went on to say, you won’t be able to rule the people if you have to win a campaign by dividing them. You won’t be able to bring them back together later.
The same tactics the paopas used to grabbed the SLPP flagbearership that produced Bio is the same they are using in national elections– violence, fear and intimidation of voters.
Then, the paopa hoodlums sent texts to delegates as they cast their votes in the hall that if Bio didn’t win, they would’ve no home to go to.
I have this evening received intellegence that the paopas have put structures in place that could keep them in power for “100 years unless the UN intervenes.
FOCUS ON SIERRA LEONE: 5 March 2021
The Siasmic general elections, which will take place in 2023 will shape the destiny of the country.
No election has ever been held with all opposition parties working together to put up one presidential candidate against the incumbent.
For the first time, all the opposition parties in Sierra Leone are comming together to remove the incumbent. It has happened in almost every comparable African countries in the sub-region. Until now Sierra Leone has been the exception as Ghana,Liberia, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Guinea, Nigeria,Gambia have all elected either a coalition or new parties to power.
This is the modern political alignment of the progressive that recognises and appreciate inclusive politics, national cohesion ,the desire for progress and stability as best pursued by accommodating diverse political parties committed to cooperate governance system for the national interest devoid of party dogmas and the winner takes all mentality.
Arithmeticallly, paopa cannot win 2023 election against COPPP,if they stay united and especially if they agree on one presidential candidate.
Just look at the Port loko bye election. The PDP is northwestern party oriented and so is NGC although they have supporters across the country.
But they will split the opposition votes especially in the Northwest.
NGC under kky leadership will get significant votes in the northwestern area, more than he was denied in 2018. He will show well in Bo where his wife hailed and highly respected and loved for her philanthropic works in helping the people as well as a woman of calm and desirable persona in the trouble terrains of politics.
After four years in Parliament, Kandeh Yumkella has established himself as a patriot who is particularly interested in the welfare of the country and building a strong institutions as the only way for Sierra Leone to move ahead.
The expected progress he will make in 2023 election will likely disadvantage the main APC opposition, who should, otherwise, benefit from the unpopularity of the failed paopa SLPP government. And there are tens of thousands of people in Freetown and in the Southeast who are deeply dissapointed and have lost confidence in their future under the paopas and regretted ever voting for them.
In the Southeast, the COPPP need a charismatic Southeastern to dent the poapo votes in the region like Charles Margai did with Berewa in 2007.
On the whole, president Bio is in a desperate situation and the only way hisvpaopas party can win is if the plans under their sleeves to remain in power works for them accordingly and unchallenged.
The paopa won in 2018 by 51.8 percent after the run off ballot. The APC got 48.8 percent. Paopa victory was by 3 percent. The actual votes that separated the paopa as winners and the loser APC was 92,235 votes.
The NGC pulled over 127,000 in the first ballot inspite of all the obstacles that the presidential candidate, Dr Kandeh Yumkella was placed under . In my honest opinion, NGC did far better than the votes recorded as there were many paopa saboteurs who infiltrated into NGC and took positions as the party’s polling agents.
But nevertheless, it gave us some insight as to the reason president Bio has desperately tried to woo Dr Kandeh Yumkella back to SLPP. Because the more than 127,000 NGC votes in the first round results of the 2018 elections, are more than the total margin of votes that took president Bio to statehouse in the final second ballot in 2018.
The paopas cannot improve on their 51 percent in second ballot in 2018 because over 3 percent of the 51 percent were not from their traditional voters, which had in all general elections hovered between 38 to 44 percent with two exceptions.
1) Julius Bio in 2012 general and presidential elections pulled only 37.4 percent, the lowest national votes any SLPP presidential candidate got in history.
2) Because president Kabba governed from the centre and was able to carry the country with him during the war, which he ended in 2002, Kabba secured a landslide victory and did fantastically well in the North because Kabba was perceived in the North as a centrist who has an authentic link with the North.
Further election data will demonstrate why the paopas cannot reasonably win the 2023 election.
Firstly ,in 2007 APC pulled 44.34 percent of the national votes in the first ballot.
SLPP pulled 38.28 of the national votes under Berewa.
The PMDC factor no doubt played a decisive role in denting SLPP Southeast votes and succeeded in defeating Berewa.
That election went to a second ballot. APC pulled 54.62 percent votes and SLPP got 45.38 percent .Enerst Koroma won the presidency in 2007.
In 2012 , under paopa leadership SLPP of Julius Bio, APC pulled 58.7 percent and Paopa SLPP pulled 37.4 , which was the lowest votes any SLPP presidential candidate got since the party came into being. APC won by a healthy lead in first ballot.
In 2018, APC pulled 42.7 percent whereas paopa SLPP pulled 43.3 percent with 15,000 votes separated the two parties in the first ballot.
This was a result that was reflected by the unpopularity of the APC incumbent as they became arrogant, complacent and corrupt.
The paopas, who had used unsavoury tactics to grabbed the leadership of probably the oldest political party still living in the sub-region were well positioned for victory.
In the second ballot of 2018, the paopas won by 51.8 percent with the APC securing 48.8 percent.
Both parties who remained in the run off, captured the votes of the smaller opposition parties who were eliminated in the first ballot.
The APC added just over 6 more percentage on their first round votes of 42.7 rising to 48.8 percent but not enough for them to claim victory.
The paopa SLPP increased their first round vote from 43.3 percent to 51.8, which represents an increase of 8 percent.
So what these increases in the percentages of votes for the two parties in the second ballot in 2018, tells us is that over 14 percent of the voters did not vote for either APC or SLPP in the first ballot. In other words, the 14 percent of the electorates voted for smaller parties other than APC or paopa SLPP in the first ballot.
This 14 percent of voters ,who didn’t vote in the first ballot for either of the two main parties would suggest that for COPPP to remove Bio they should never go into the 2023 election with separate presidential candidates leading their respective parties. Because, that 14 percent, will split their votes amongst their respective first choices of parties or presidential candidates almost certainly forcing a second ballot with the incumbent having a considerable leverage to woo them into his side.
It will be a strategic folly to engage the paopas with 12 presidential candidates for the 2023 elections.
Coalition has proved to be the best possible means of removing a crooked incumbent, like the paopas we have running the country. They simply don’t play by the rules.
COPPP must avoid going into second ballot and their primary target should be to knockout the paopas.
This is more likely when COPPP go for a consensus presidential candidate.
The paopas are extremely vulnerable in their so call strongholds but they will be more comfortable if the election was a two way contest between their historical rival –the APC.
Significantly, there are more than 12 political parties in COPPP, with each of them having their supporters. Even the ADP ,whose leaders, Mohamed Kamaraiba Mansaray is languishing in prison had over 1 percent of the national votes in 2018 election, which was over 26,000 votes.
Below are the full lists of the results of all parties in the first ballot of the 2018 general and presidential elections.
First Round – 7 March 2018
Alliance Democratic Party (ADP)26,7041.1%
Coalition for Democratic Change (C4C)
C4C 87,7203.5%
Citizens Democratic Party (CDP)11,4930.5%
Democratic Alliance (NDA)8,3440.3%
National Grand Coalition (NGC) 174,0146.9%
National Progressive Democrats (NPD)4,2390.2%
National Unity and Reconciliation Party (NURP)2,3180.1%
Peace and Liberation Party (PLP)4,2330.2%
People’s Movement for Democratic Change (PMDC)9,8640.4%
National Independence Party (RNIP)2,5550.1%
Revolutionary United Front Party (RUFP)12,8270.5%
Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP)
SLPP 1,097,48243.3%
United Democratic Movement (UDM)5,6950.2%
United National People’s Party (UNPP)3,0610.1%
Unity Party (UP)3,825
Therefore, the total votes shared amongst the 12 parties constituting the COPPP should be more than 9 percent of the national votes, which is more than enough for COPPP to deliver an inescapable knockout punch to the paopas in the 2023 presidential election.
Two hurdles stands in the way.
1) If all the COPPP members failed to unite around a single consensus presidential candidate but decided to field separate presidential candidate.
The second hurdle should be more concerning to COPPP as well.
The incumbency and whatever the paopas have put in place to ensure victory– no matter by which means.
The number 2 hurdle requires an absolute cohesiveness and alertness because, let’s face it, there are no such thing as free and fair elections in black Africa.
What matters is the ability of the opposing election competitors to successfully rig an election. This is true in almost every black African countries in particular.
In advanced democracies, such as in the west, one can rely on the judiciary and strong independent institutions to justly protect the will of the people as we saw last year in the USA presidential elections when 61 law suits filed by the incumbent Donald Trump were all thrown out by the judges including the republican judges appointed by Trump himself.
In the state of Georgia, the entire political structure comprising of the mayor, the attorney General and senior election officials were members of president Trump’s republican party but they categorically rejected Trump claim that he won the election and resisted his pressure to change the election results in his favour.
COPPP should organise their campaign in cognisance of how weak our institutions are and what they can do to ensure the elections will be seen to be free and fair.
This, more than anything else, is the challenge.
Yankuba Kai-Samba Writing from Chelmsford UK
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