The opposition Sierra Leone People’s Party ( SLPP ) open online forum and the two Leonenet Forums are buzzing .Though defeat is staring them in the face, SLPP participants who control these forums are still in denial and making all manners of false declarations about the results. They are also fuming and may need anger management therapy.
Their quarry obviously is the publisher and editor -in -chief of Cocorioko , Leeroy Wilfred Kabs-Kanu who has become Public Enemy No. 1 to them because he has been providing accurate state-of-the -art coverage of the elections , with accurate polls, forecasts and results directly from the National Elections Commission ( NEC ) and the All People’s Congress ( APC ) Tallying centres. SLPP fanatics do not like to hear that their party is losing and they are spewing their venom on Kabs-Kanu.
But the truth is beginning to dawn on some of them.
Sylvester Johnny , one of the SLPP fanatics, who had been in denial, posted the following in the SLPP Forum :
READ :
IF THE CURRENT RESULTS STAND, APC WINS
Posted by Sylvester Johnny on September 14, 2007 at 20:13:21:
Some of my SLPP colleagues are understandably not happy with my congratulatory message to APC. The interest of that nation comes ahead of our individual interests. In the last few weeks, I have been involved in numerous projects to ensure that SLPP wins the run-off election mainly because of my life experience under APC when they were last in power. I have been called names due to my unflinching support for the party. Most of these people hardly know me personally. Even my family and friends have been surprised at my involvement in national politics.
We need to be realistic and respect the wishes of the people. As an incumbent we are suppose to run on our achievements but the voters do not seem to appreciate what we have done for the country so far. We now need to regroup and concentrate on the things that will bring us back to power. Please find below the percentage of votes won by each of the candidates to date. It is easy to note that Ernest Koroma’s least votes so far are 19%, 23%, 24% and 32% from Kenema, Pujehun, Kailahun and Bo respectively. Contrast with Berewah who scores 10%, 12%, 13%, 23%, and 28% from Bombali, Tonkolili, Kambia, Portloko and Western Area (Rural) respectively. Whereas Ernest Koroma has scored about 70% from all of Bombali, Portloko, Kambia, Tonkolili, Western Area (Urban and Rural), Berewah has so far been able to get 70% only from Pujehun, Kenema and Kailahun. It appears APC wants to win this election more than us. Take a look at our individual financial contributions to the two parties, the APC wins hands down.
% scored
Berewah Ernest
Kenema 0.81 0.19
Kailahun0.76 0.24
Kono 0.55 0.45
Bombali 0.10 0.90
Port Loko0.23 0.77
Koinadugu0.35 0.65
Kambia 0.13 0.87
Tonkolili0.12 0.88
Bo 0.68 0.32
Moyamba 0.56 0.42
Bonthe 0.62 0.38
Pujehun 0.77 0.23
WA Rural0.28 0.72
WA Urban0.31 0.69
I have tried to analyze the outcome based on the results certified by NEC. In all the different scenarios provided below, APC comes out victorious. Even with the unrealistic assumption of SLPP winning all the remaining votes from Kenema, Kailahun, Bonthe, Bo, and Pujehun, APC wins. I really want SLPP to win but it is looking extremely difficult. I wish it was possible to attach the related spreadsheet and readers can perform some sensitivity analysis to determine the possible outcome.I will leave you to judge the merits of each of the assumptions below.
ASSUMPTION 1
Current Voting Pattern using % of polling stations counted
APC 1,041,954
SLPP 836,457
ASSUMPTION 2
Current Voting Pattern using valid votes from First Round
APC 1,032,734
SLPP 805,681
ASSUMPTION 3
SLPP getting all the remaining votes in Kenema, Kailahun, Bonthe, Bo, and Pujehun using % of polling stations counted
ASSUMPTION 4
APC 962,794
SLPP 915,618
ASSUMPTION 5
Current Voting Pattern using all the registered voters for all districts
APC 1,324,177
SLPP 1,081,019
ASSUMPTION 6
SLPP getting all the remaining votes in Kenema, Kailahun, Bonthe, Bo, and Pujehun using all the registered voters for all districts
APC 1,208,397
SLPP 1,196,798
ANOTHER SLPP SUPPORTER WROTE THE FOLLOWING IN THE COCORIOKO FORUM :
Subject: Congrats
From: Pa Sorie
To: All
Date Posted: 13:30:33 09/14/07 ()
Email Address:
Entered From: cpe-24-168-2-173.si.res.rr.com at 24.168.2.173
Message:
Never in my life did I ever thought of the possibility of offering my congratulation to the APC. But with all sincerity duff my heart to the well managed campaign teams, and information machinery ably led by Kabs Kanu, and best wishes for their tenure in office. Hope this reign will be a total opposite to the previous ones, as the common man is now au fait with the issue of governance, as we have seen from the outcome of the result.
As for ‘my’ party (regreted my vote in 1996) well I hate to say this, but we knew all along this was inevitable. We had every opportunity to put the put the country on a successful path, but we mis-used it, thus our commupence. Therefore, back to the drawing board, try to be an effective opposition…..oops we forgot to plan for that….Pa Kabbah good luck, hope you get to enjoy your retirement. Whilst it is ok for you to be above politics at this moment, it would have been a lot better had you allowed the party to choose it leader.
In as much as we appericiate your effort over the last 11-12 years, you and teams of special advisers have left us in a quamire, it time for the new generation to step up, a new generation that are ready to put the country first, fulfill promises, act as a voice for the people.I know some of my brothers and sisters in the party are dissolusioned. Those of you that are au-fait with re-allingmnet theory in part politics should take heart and start preparing for the next 10 years, as that it what is needed at this point in time.Once more to my APC brothers and sisters, we are watching…..and will point your mistakes in a well meanining and cultured manner through mediums like these…..Good luck.
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